New Research Reveals Concealed Carry ‘Shall Issue’ Laws Increase Handgun Purchases, While ‘Permitless Carry’ Shows No Effect

Key Takeaways: 

• Different levels of relaxed concealed carry regulations, “Shall Issue” laws and “Permitless Carry,” may affect gun purchases differently.
• Scientists find evidence that the adoption of “Shall Issue” laws, which remove local discretion in permit issuance, increases gun purchases, particularly for new handguns.
• Over 70% of the increased purchasing is by repeat gun buyers.
• The increased purchases are substantially larger in high-crime and urban areas.
• In locations where concealed carry regulation shifts from “Shall Issue” to the most permissive “Permitless Carry,” there is no noticeable change in gun purchases.

BALTIMORE, MD, May 13, 2025 – Researchers who took a close look at loosened concealed carry laws between 2010 and 2017 have found that “Shall Issue” regulations, which remove local authority discretion on the issuance of concealed carry gun permits, contribute to a significant increase in handgun purchases. At the same time, the researchers found that in states that adopted “Permitless Carry” policies, there was no noticeable change in gun purchases.

The research study, “The Impact of Loosening Concealed Carry Laws on Firearm Demand,” is published in the INFORMS journal Marketing Science and authored by Jessica Jumee Kim of Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, and Yu-Chang Chen of National Taiwan University.

Since 2000, 11 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., adopted “Concealed Carry Weapon (CCW) Shall Issue” regulations, removing local authority discretion on the issuance of concealed carry gun permits. At the same time, 28 states eliminated permit requirements entirely – 14 states have made this change since 2021. The many changes in regulation across states motivated the study authors to investigate the impact of loosened concealed carry regulation on gun purchases.

“Through our research, we investigate and analyze the impacts of ‘CCW Shall Issue’ adoption, and ‘CCW Permitless Carry,’ which is the least restrictive policy,” says Kim. “We found that CCW Shall Issue adoption increased handgun purchasing with over 70% of these purchases driven by repeat gun buyers. Increased purchases were substantially larger in urban and high-crime areas. In areas where CCW Permitless Carry was adopted, there was no noticeable impact on gun purchases.”

The researchers used background checks and online firearm retail purchase data covering a time period from 2010 through 2017. The data did not contain any consumer-identifiable information. 

“We found that CCW Shall Issue adoption increased online handgun purchases by 21% and handgun background checks by 35%,” says Chen. “We detected no substitution from long guns to handguns, and no statistically significant increase in gun purchases following adoption of CCW Permitless Carry. The change from CCW Shall Issue to CCW Permitless Carry may not induce more purchases because those legally eligible for concealed carrying may already have purchased guns before.”

The researchers found that when requirements were loosened to “Shall Issue,” guns with calibers suitable for concealed carrying represented a significant share of the increased purchases. They also found that the relaxed restrictions had a stronger effect on repeat gun buyers who have purchased three or more guns before, and for those who have previously purchased both handguns and long guns.

“While we did detect higher rates of increased gun purchases in high-crime and urban areas, we found inconclusive evidence that increased gun purchases had any impact on gun mortality rates, including suicides,” added Kim.

Link to Study

About INFORMS and Marketing Science

INFORMS is the world’s largest association for professionals and students in operations research, AI, analytics, data science and related disciplines, serving as a global authority in advancing cutting-edge practices and fostering an interdisciplinary community of innovation. Marketing Science, a peer-reviewed journal published by INFORMS, focuses on quantitative research at the intersection of consumers and firms. INFORMS fosters smarter decision-making and innovation through its journals, conferences and professional resources. Learn more at www.informs.org or @informs.

# # #