INFORMS Journal Marketing Science Finds $27 Billion in Annual Retail Losses Across the U.S.
New INFORMS Marketing Science Study Key Takeaways:
- Mass shootings result in an estimated $27 billion annual revenue loss for U.S. retailers.
- Businesses within a 1.25-mile radius of a mass shooting see an average 19% drop in revenue.
- Nonessential stores face greater financial impact, whereas communities with higher gun death rates experience less severe losses, suggesting potential desensitization.
BALTIMORE, MD, May 13, 2025 – As communities across the United States continue to confront the devastating toll of mass shootings, new research reveals a staggering economic dimension to these tragedies. A study published in the INFORMS journal Marketing Science finds that mass shootings cause an estimated $27 billion in annual lost revenue for U.S. retailers driven by sharp declines in foot traffic, reduced transaction volume and long-term store closures.
The study, “Mass Shootings and Their Impact on Retail,” conducted by Khai Chiong, Simon Kim and TI Tongil Kim of the University of Texas at Dallas, uncovers significant and lasting ripple effects on surrounding businesses. Retailers located near the scene of a mass shooting suffer an average 19% drop in revenue, with measurable economic disruption extending up to 1.25 miles from the site.
“Our findings show that the consequences of mass shootings extend far beyond the immediate tragedy,” says Kim, an associate professor at the Naveen Jindal School of Management at UT Dallas. “They ripple across entire communities, disrupting not only lives but livelihoods.”
The research also highlights disparities in impact across business types. Nonessential retailers, such as apparel and specialty stores, suffer greater losses compared to essential services like grocery stores or pharmacies. Additionally, in communities with higher firearm death rates, the economic impact appears muted – potentially signaling consumer desensitization in areas more frequently exposed to gun violence. The study also finds that heightened fear drives consumers to shift spending from in-person to online as well as shortens their dwell times at impacted stores.
With national discussions on public safety and community resilience intensifying, the findings offer a sobering perspective on the economic collateral damage of mass shootings.
“We estimate that mass shootings cost the U.S. retail sector roughly $27 billion annually,” says Chiong, an assistant professor in the Naveen Jindal School of Management at UT Dallas. “Our hope is that these findings help inform policymakers and civic leaders as they work toward solutions that improve safety and strengthen economic stability.”
About INFORMS and Marketing Science
INFORMS is the world’s largest association for professionals and students in operations research, AI, analytics, data science and related disciplines, serving as a global authority in advancing cutting-edge practices and fostering an interdisciplinary community of innovation. Marketing Science, a peer-reviewed journal by INFORMS, focuses on quantitative research at the intersection of consumers and firms. INFORMS fosters smarter decision-making and innovation through its journals, conferences and professional resources. Learn more at www.informs.org or @informs.
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Ashley Smith
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Catonsville, MD
[email protected]
443-757-3578