Yale Insights, February 20, 2020
China is taking drastic steps to contain the spread of a recently identified coronavirus, but the outbreak has already traveled past its borders, and cities around the globe must be ready to respond to cases within their jurisdictions. Yale SOM’s Edward Kaplan used early reports out of Wuhan to evaluate the likely effectiveness of common tactics, such as isolation of patients and quarantine, in keeping the disease from spreading in new regions. His model predicts that new outbreaks can likely be contained by isolating infected patients, but it also highlights the importance of identifying new cases as early as possible.